Santa Ynez, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS66 KLOX 012351
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
351 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...01/137 PM.

Showers will be tapering off this afternoon and sunshine will
prevail the rest of today. Dry and warmer conditions can be
expected throughout this coming week until at least Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...01/137 PM.

Synoptically, a deep upper level trough is moving through the area
from west to east, and it will be out of the CWA by this evening.
Monday and Tuesday will find the area under a ~585dam ridge
between the exiting trough and the next wave that will affect
California by Wednesday. Most of the guidance holds the
precipitation from that system to our north, but it is possible
that the north of San Luis Obispo County will see some rain.
Ridging will return after that system exits to the east and it
will likely remain until around the 10th.

The final band of showers with the current system is still producing
some light rain in the Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains.
Expect intermittent showers for a few more hours. Hourly rainfall
rates are only about a tenth of an inch, so no major impacts are
expected.

Dry and warmer weather will return Monday with slowly warming
temperatures through the week thanks in part to some weak offshore
flow. Some of the mountains will likely have some 20-30 mph gusts
at times.

By Tuesday highs will generally be within a few degrees of
normal. There will be a weak weather system moving into northern
California Tuesday which is why the warming trend will be a slow
one at least to start this week. A few of the ensemble solutions
show a 5-15 percent chance for some light precip near the coastal
border of SLO/Monterey County Tuesday evening but dry elsewhere.

Wednesday will balance increasing cloud cover with mild offshore
flow and probably wind up with temperatures about what they were
on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...01/147 PM.

The offshore wind and gradual warming trend will continue in the
long term from Thursday into the weekend. Offshore gradients are
expected to increase late in the week and peak on Saturday at
about a minus 4, which would lead to warmer temperatures and some
gusty offshore winds, primarily in LA and Ventura Counties. The
recent rains will mitigate some of the fire weather risk, but
certainly not over the whole CWA.

Looking into the extended forecast, there is another trough
dropping down the coast beginning around the Wednesday the 11st
that ensembles suggest could bring the next rain to the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2341Z.

At 2300Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Gusty
west winds will gradually decrease through the late afternoon
& early evening. VFR conditions expected at all sites through
the forecast period.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions will prevail.
Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below
8 kt and likely under 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF, except moderate confidence
in wind through 02/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/924 AM.

High confidence in post-frontal SCA-level W-NW winds with local
gale gusts and choppy spreading to most coastal waters today,
including the entire Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica
Bay. The winds turn to the NE on Monday and will likely stay below
SCA- levels. There is a chance for another round of post-frontal
winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, but likely a step below in
strength compared to Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 645-650-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/jld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RM/RK/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox